Thursday, July 02, 2009
Latest Economic Indices Not Painting a Rosy Picture
Here's the most recent data according to R. Keith Schwer of the The Center for Business and Economic Research regarding the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators:
The Index rose a modest 0.6 percent for June, essentially standing still on a month-to-month basis. The sharp decline of the past year or so has at least hit a pause, however. Visitor volume, down a modest 2.89 percent for the same month a year ago, contributed the most to the strength of the index. All in all, we may be starting to get around the corner. We remain cautiously optimistic that a turn up in the index is forming -- giving us some hope that a recovery may start in the next six months or so.
CBER Clark County Business-Activity Index:
The Business-Activity Index continues its downward trajectory, reversing last month’s one-time rise -- a one-month change that was only a desert mirage. The index offers a perspective of the stage of the business cycle we are in. In short, a recession is from peak to trough and a recovery from trough to peak. Taken as a whole, we have strong evidence that the recession we are in continues.
CBER Clark County Tourism Index:
The Tourism Index improved for the third month in a row, though up a modest 0.79 percent over last month. The rise in visitor volume explains this strength. Aggressive advertising of value opportunities seems to be working. To be sure, this improvement is modest and has yet to gain enough momentum to curtail the recession, but clearly this is a glimmer of hope for better things to come.
CBER Clark County Construction Index:
The roller-coaster decline in construction that started from 2006 has pushed the
index below the values when the index starts in 1995. The index shows a one-month rise of 2.17 percent. Still, the index is near and all-time low. Moreover, the prospects for improvement remain weak. We lost about 15,000 construction jobs over the past year. With excess residential, commercial, and industrial space, further contraction seems inevitable at this time.
The Index rose a modest 0.6 percent for June, essentially standing still on a month-to-month basis. The sharp decline of the past year or so has at least hit a pause, however. Visitor volume, down a modest 2.89 percent for the same month a year ago, contributed the most to the strength of the index. All in all, we may be starting to get around the corner. We remain cautiously optimistic that a turn up in the index is forming -- giving us some hope that a recovery may start in the next six months or so.
CBER Clark County Business-Activity Index:
The Business-Activity Index continues its downward trajectory, reversing last month’s one-time rise -- a one-month change that was only a desert mirage. The index offers a perspective of the stage of the business cycle we are in. In short, a recession is from peak to trough and a recovery from trough to peak. Taken as a whole, we have strong evidence that the recession we are in continues.
CBER Clark County Tourism Index:
The Tourism Index improved for the third month in a row, though up a modest 0.79 percent over last month. The rise in visitor volume explains this strength. Aggressive advertising of value opportunities seems to be working. To be sure, this improvement is modest and has yet to gain enough momentum to curtail the recession, but clearly this is a glimmer of hope for better things to come.
CBER Clark County Construction Index:
The roller-coaster decline in construction that started from 2006 has pushed the
index below the values when the index starts in 1995. The index shows a one-month rise of 2.17 percent. Still, the index is near and all-time low. Moreover, the prospects for improvement remain weak. We lost about 15,000 construction jobs over the past year. With excess residential, commercial, and industrial space, further contraction seems inevitable at this time.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Are you on Twitter? Follow Me!
I finally gave in - after months (and literally MONTHS) of everyone I know trying to get me to put a presence on Twitter, I finally caved in and did it. Here's my Twitter page:
http://www.twitter.com/highriser
In the short time I've been online with this, I have to admit I am totally addicted to it. It's great - and it's skyrocketed my video and text business to the point where I'm so mad at myself for not doing this sooner.
Granted, you have to work at it. You have to post valuable info (called "tweets") so people will be more inclined to "follow you". The viral marketing concept that you can create with this platform is mind-boggling.
So take it from me. Get on Twitter today and start Tweeting. If Shaquille O'Neal can do it, so can you. And it's actually kind of fun as well.
http://www.twitter.com/highriser
In the short time I've been online with this, I have to admit I am totally addicted to it. It's great - and it's skyrocketed my video and text business to the point where I'm so mad at myself for not doing this sooner.
Granted, you have to work at it. You have to post valuable info (called "tweets") so people will be more inclined to "follow you". The viral marketing concept that you can create with this platform is mind-boggling.
So take it from me. Get on Twitter today and start Tweeting. If Shaquille O'Neal can do it, so can you. And it's actually kind of fun as well.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Learn to Build Your Real Estate Business Sending Video Emails
Do you know what the most effective form of internet marketing is? it's email. Email works - and that's why you get so much spam in your inbox each day. As real estate agents, we're all looking for the next best thing so if you're in the business, I need you to read the next line carefully:
Adding campaign video to your marketing arsenal has the potential to skyrocket response rates and in turn, result in more income for your real estate business.
I use video email almost exclusively now and I love it. In fact, I created a website to showcase the Attain Response platform at the following link:
http://www.videoemailresults.com
We are having an informational meeting tomorrow morning (Friday, June 4thth at 11:30am) to explain how this platform can help you with your real estate career. This is NOT a webinar, seminar, or anythingelse-ar. This is a live meeting which you can attend in person.
The event is by invitation only. Sorry for the short notice, but if you'd like an invite (and will DEFINITELY attend), please respond by email or call me direct at 702-336-5554. If you're serious about succeeding in your career in a down market, 1 hour out of your day is a small price to pay.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Uncle Jay Explains the Deficit
Can it be any clearer? Check out this video which may explain the mess we're all in with the real estate, banking, and stock markets.
Now why didn't I think of that?
Friday, May 08, 2009
Inspirational Messages Directly to Your Cell Phone
In this down economy and doom and gloom all over the place, it's probably a good idea to get some positive reinforcement every once in a while.
I recently signed up to receive daily insights and inspirational text messages right to my cell phone on a daily basis. check it out for yourself at this link
If it helps us all whether the Las Vegas high rise condo market and real estate industry in general until things get better, I'm all for it. Hope this brightens someone's day!
I recently signed up to receive daily insights and inspirational text messages right to my cell phone on a daily basis. check it out for yourself at this link
If it helps us all whether the Las Vegas high rise condo market and real estate industry in general until things get better, I'm all for it. Hope this brightens someone's day!
Thursday, May 07, 2009
When you see "Short Sale", Move On ...
Whether you're looking to purchase a Las Vegas high rise condo, or just any type of Las Vegas property, save yourself some time and pass on the "Short Sale" deal. Short Sales are sexy... they're alluring.. and they're a total waste of time.
Most buyers will see "short sale" and put in a low-ball offer to see what happens. Well, what happens is the bank sees tons of these offers, and they don't like any of them. So they counter with "highest and best". Then they'll take what they consider the best offer and wait under the guise of determining whether or not to allow the sale.
What they're doing in real life is waiting for an even better offer to come to the table. Short sale buyers may wait months for their deal to move forward, and even then the bank can kill the deal anywhere in the process. Meanwhile, real deals and real bargains out there are taken by other investors and home buyers.
It happens with houses, it happens with condos, it happens with high rises. Here's my advice: foreclosures, YES... short sales, PASS.
Most buyers will see "short sale" and put in a low-ball offer to see what happens. Well, what happens is the bank sees tons of these offers, and they don't like any of them. So they counter with "highest and best". Then they'll take what they consider the best offer and wait under the guise of determining whether or not to allow the sale.
What they're doing in real life is waiting for an even better offer to come to the table. Short sale buyers may wait months for their deal to move forward, and even then the bank can kill the deal anywhere in the process. Meanwhile, real deals and real bargains out there are taken by other investors and home buyers.
It happens with houses, it happens with condos, it happens with high rises. Here's my advice: foreclosures, YES... short sales, PASS.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Good News and/or Bad News Regarding the Las Vegas Real Estate Market
According to an article published in yesterday's Las Vegas Review Journal, real estate prices in the Las Vegas Valley are now at 2001 levels. That's the good news AND the bad news in one sentence depending on how you look at it.
But wait: there's even MORE good news and bad news in the same sentence because the Review Journal today just published another article saying it's possible the median value of homes in Las Vegas could now drop to $100,000.
I guess it would depend on whether you were a buyer or a seller to determine if this is good news or bad. You don't need a Crystal Ball to know we're in a very challenging economy and real estate market.
Is this the bottom? Who knows? ... but can you sit there complaining and hoping your life will change for the better? I don't think so. The truth of the matter is not everyone is struggling. You can either find out what they're doing, or continue to wait for good news in print.
But wait: there's even MORE good news and bad news in the same sentence because the Review Journal today just published another article saying it's possible the median value of homes in Las Vegas could now drop to $100,000.
I guess it would depend on whether you were a buyer or a seller to determine if this is good news or bad. You don't need a Crystal Ball to know we're in a very challenging economy and real estate market.
Is this the bottom? Who knows? ... but can you sit there complaining and hoping your life will change for the better? I don't think so. The truth of the matter is not everyone is struggling. You can either find out what they're doing, or continue to wait for good news in print.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Allure Las Vegas High Rise Are Taking Their Units To Auction - Beware of HOAs
The Allure high rise condo project is putting 10 of their units up for auction at 1:00pm on Saturday, hoping that a successful auction will set an industry standard for similar high rise condo dogs such as Trump, Streamline Tower, Turnberry Towers, and Palms Place.
The units being auctioned are from original buyers who chose to walk away from their deposits rather than close, hence allowing for the "bargain basement" type price environment an auction usually promises, but many times does not deliver since "bid-frenzy" usually causes an eventual over-bidding of value - whatever that "value" actually is, as no one can tell what the value of an Allure unit should be.
Alan Schactman, senior vice president for Chicago-based developer Fifield Cos. (the developers of Allure) said the 427-unit Allure is about 50 percent sold. I don't believe it. I also don't believe his statement that "This (auction) is a one-time deal. I do not anticipate another auction. The market is picking up. I think after this auction, we're probably going to raise prices."
With statements like that, you know you're being taken to the cleaners. (remember those famous lines: "I'm from the government - I'm here to help you" and "The check's in the mail"... or "Of course I'll respect you in the morning")
The sad fact is the high rise market is not picking up. And you'll probably be able to pick up an Allure unit in the future at way less than you'll get at an auction. What really scares me about so many failed high rise condo projects that are trying to close unit sales is the total ommission of those 3 hated letters: HOA.
Does anyone consider what their Home Owners Association fees will be when they purchase a high rise condo? If all the units are sold and people are living in the building and all is fine in wonderland, HOA fees are stable and affordable. But what if that's not the case? Your HOA fees can skyrocket and I'll guarantee you that you'll wish you skipped the auction and invested in recession resistant opportunities instead.
The units being auctioned are from original buyers who chose to walk away from their deposits rather than close, hence allowing for the "bargain basement" type price environment an auction usually promises, but many times does not deliver since "bid-frenzy" usually causes an eventual over-bidding of value - whatever that "value" actually is, as no one can tell what the value of an Allure unit should be.
Alan Schactman, senior vice president for Chicago-based developer Fifield Cos. (the developers of Allure) said the 427-unit Allure is about 50 percent sold. I don't believe it. I also don't believe his statement that "This (auction) is a one-time deal. I do not anticipate another auction. The market is picking up. I think after this auction, we're probably going to raise prices."
With statements like that, you know you're being taken to the cleaners. (remember those famous lines: "I'm from the government - I'm here to help you" and "The check's in the mail"... or "Of course I'll respect you in the morning")
The sad fact is the high rise market is not picking up. And you'll probably be able to pick up an Allure unit in the future at way less than you'll get at an auction. What really scares me about so many failed high rise condo projects that are trying to close unit sales is the total ommission of those 3 hated letters: HOA.
Does anyone consider what their Home Owners Association fees will be when they purchase a high rise condo? If all the units are sold and people are living in the building and all is fine in wonderland, HOA fees are stable and affordable. But what if that's not the case? Your HOA fees can skyrocket and I'll guarantee you that you'll wish you skipped the auction and invested in recession resistant opportunities instead.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Marketing Company Inks Sweetheart Deal from LVCVA - Especially Without Any Competition
The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority just approved a new three-year advertising and marketing deal with R&R Partners, creators of the "What happens here, stays here" advertising slogan.
Now I will give you that "What happens here, stays here" is probably one of the most successful marketing campaigns in the history of advertising, but I'm a little confused that R&R Partners won the contract without an open bidding process. We're talking $400 million dollars in spending by the authority over the past 5 years. Shouldn't other agencies at least have a shot at that kind of prize, especially since every other advertising campaign they've utilized since their homerun slogan have been total failures?
According to Rossi Ralenkotter, president and CEO of the Convention Authority, "We don't have the time to do on-the-job training for another agency"... Sounds suspicious. (kickback perhaps?).
We're in a very crucial period of time for Las Vegas and the nation in general. There's outrage all around with how large companies are being bailed out only to see the funds (that we pay for in taxes) get used for bonuses, vacations, and junkets for the very executives who got us into this problem to begin with. Meanwhile, many Las Vegas high rise condo buyers are stuck with horrible purchases, debt that will never go away, and thinking that walking away from substantial deposits is their best option in this market. Where's the Las Vegas high rise condo bailout?!?!
This competition-free, inner circle friendly, "nobody will notice" type deal with the LVCVA is just another story that makes me sick on how companies spend money and award contracts. Let's hope R&R lives up to their end of the bargain and comes up with something that'll get people to visit, spend, invest, and maybe even relocate to the Vegas area again - otherwise there's no hope that the Las Vegas real estate market will recover in a timeframe that will make the CityCenters of the world happy.
Now I will give you that "What happens here, stays here" is probably one of the most successful marketing campaigns in the history of advertising, but I'm a little confused that R&R Partners won the contract without an open bidding process. We're talking $400 million dollars in spending by the authority over the past 5 years. Shouldn't other agencies at least have a shot at that kind of prize, especially since every other advertising campaign they've utilized since their homerun slogan have been total failures?
According to Rossi Ralenkotter, president and CEO of the Convention Authority, "We don't have the time to do on-the-job training for another agency"... Sounds suspicious. (kickback perhaps?).
We're in a very crucial period of time for Las Vegas and the nation in general. There's outrage all around with how large companies are being bailed out only to see the funds (that we pay for in taxes) get used for bonuses, vacations, and junkets for the very executives who got us into this problem to begin with. Meanwhile, many Las Vegas high rise condo buyers are stuck with horrible purchases, debt that will never go away, and thinking that walking away from substantial deposits is their best option in this market. Where's the Las Vegas high rise condo bailout?!?!
This competition-free, inner circle friendly, "nobody will notice" type deal with the LVCVA is just another story that makes me sick on how companies spend money and award contracts. Let's hope R&R lives up to their end of the bargain and comes up with something that'll get people to visit, spend, invest, and maybe even relocate to the Vegas area again - otherwise there's no hope that the Las Vegas real estate market will recover in a timeframe that will make the CityCenters of the world happy.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
Turnberry Tower hands off Ownership Key to Prudential Financial
In a move that may signify an emerging trend in the Las Vegas high rise condo marketplace, Prudential Financial now controls the Turnberry Towers high rise project after buying its outstanding debt from their lenders. While Turnberry Associates is still in the picture, Prudential has bought the undisclosed amount of debt from Bank of America and as such, Prudential is now the partner that'll make all the decisions.
This move effects mainly the west tower, recently completed last year, yet struggling mightily to sell units, as almost 50% remain unsold while a significant number that have closed remain vacant. In this recessionary economy, prices sought by Turnberry for their units are still extravagant and apparently more pain is necessary before they realize their overpriced nature.
Now that Turnberry has been "bailed out" so to speak, will we see similar projects take this route as well? Only if they're lucky. Industry "experts" - and you know how we feel about experts, especially in this environment - say Prudential got a good deal and basically picked up real estate at a highly discounted price. Said attorney David LeGrand:
"In this economic environment, it makes sense to improve your financial portfolio at a discount if you have the money."
If you have the money... oh, that's a good one! Does he think everyone is an accredited investor?
This move effects mainly the west tower, recently completed last year, yet struggling mightily to sell units, as almost 50% remain unsold while a significant number that have closed remain vacant. In this recessionary economy, prices sought by Turnberry for their units are still extravagant and apparently more pain is necessary before they realize their overpriced nature.
Now that Turnberry has been "bailed out" so to speak, will we see similar projects take this route as well? Only if they're lucky. Industry "experts" - and you know how we feel about experts, especially in this environment - say Prudential got a good deal and basically picked up real estate at a highly discounted price. Said attorney David LeGrand:
"In this economic environment, it makes sense to improve your financial portfolio at a discount if you have the money."
If you have the money... oh, that's a good one! Does he think everyone is an accredited investor?
